Prediction Market Analysis

Abstract

1. Introduction

A framework for analyzing prediction market data, including the largest publicly available dataset of Polymarket and Kalshi market and trade data. Provides tools for data collection, storage, and running analysis scripts that generate figures and statistics.

2. Objective

A framework for collecting and analyzing prediction market data, including the largest publicly available dataset of Polymarket and Kalshi market and trade data.

This project demonstrates how Python can be applied to a real-world Data Science problem.

4. Technology Stack

5. System Requirements

General requirements for this technology stack — check the README for exact versions.

• Python 3.8 or later
• pip / virtualenv for dependencies
• VS Code, PyCharm or Jupyter Notebook
• Git (to clone the repository)

6. Installation & Setup

git clone https://github.com/Jon-Becker/prediction-market-analysis.git
cd prediction-market-analysis

uv sync

make setup

Full setup instructions are in the project README.

7. Future Enhancements

Suggested extensions you can add to make this your own project.

• Turn the analysis into an interactive dashboard
• Automate data refresh with a scheduled job
• Add a predictive model on top of the analysis

8. Viva / Review Questions

Common questions examiners ask for projects in this domain.

1. What is the source of the dataset and how was missing data handled?
2. Which exploratory analysis steps revealed the most useful insight?
3. Why were these particular charts chosen to present the data?
4. Which statistical or ML technique supports the conclusions?
5. How could the analysis be automated or refreshed with new data?

9. Source Code & License

This project is developed by Jon-Becker and published on GitHub under the MIT License. Please follow the license terms and credit the original author when you use or modify this code.